The Michigan Wolverines have been a hot topic nationally following a somewhat lackluster 30-10 win over Fresno State on Saturday night. This performance caused the Wolverines to drop out of the top 10 in the latest SP+ rankings.
For those unfamiliar, SP+ is a metric developed by ESPN’s Bill Connelly that measures college football efficiency adjusted for tempo and opponent. It evaluates a team’s efficiency across all three phases of the game to create a single ranking metric as an alternative method for assessing teams.
Michigan now holds an SP+ rating of 20.5, placing them at No. 12 nationally, between Oklahoma and Utah. This is a decline from their preseason No. 7 ranking, where they had an SP+ score of 25.0 before the season began.
The drop in rankings wasn’t unexpected given Michigan’s performance in Week 1. While the defense was strong as anticipated, earning the No. 3 spot in the nation on SP+, the offense struggled, resulting in a No. 56 ranking nationally.
Moreover, Michigan is currently the fourth-ranked team in the Big Ten, with Ohio State and Penn State sitting at No. 5 and No. 6, respectively, after impressive wins. Oregon also ranks at No. 8 following a close victory over Idaho.
Michigan’s schedule doesn’t ease up, as they host Texas at noon on Saturday, a matchup that has been highly anticipated all offseason. Texas is considered one of the top teams this year, reflected in their No. 3 SP+ ranking.
Texas enters the game after a dominant 52-0 win over Colorado State, boasting an SP+ rating of 29.6, which is just behind Georgia (No. 1) and Alabama (No. 2). This suggests Texas would be favored to beat Michigan by about 9.1 points on a neutral field.
The true test will be when Michigan and Texas face off at noon on Saturday at the Big House.
SP+ essentially measures how many points a team would beat (or lose to) an “average” team by on a neutral field. For example, Michigan’s current SP+ rating of 20.5 indicates that they would be expected to beat an average college football team by 20.5 points.
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